from 01.01.1993 to 01.01.2019
Siberian Federal University (Chair of Digital Financial Technologies of Sberbank of Russia, Associate professor)
from 01.01.2007 until now
Krasnoyarsk, Krasnoyarsk, Russian Federation
VAK Russia 5.2.3
VAK Russia 5.2.4
VAK Russia 5.2.5
VAK Russia 5.2.6
VAK Russia 5.2.7
UDC 338.27
UDC 336.2
The methods of forecasting used today in practice do not allow taking into account the influence of many external factors affecting the amount of tax revenue to the budget. This reduces the accuracy of forecasts. The article develops and tests a combined approach to forecasting tax revenue for the budget of a constituent entity of the Russian Federation. The approach integrates econometric methods for time series analysis and an expert assessment procedure. This minimizes systematic errors inherent in quantitative or qualitative methods.
budget revenues, regional budget, revenue forecasting, revenue modeling, tax revenues
1. Akimov, N. N. Prognozirovanie nalogovyh postupleniy v sub'ekte Rossiyskoy Federacii / N. N. Akimov, V. N. Edronova, // Finansy i kredit. – 2008. – №17 (305). – S. 51–54.
2. Boboshko N. M. Vyyavlenie tendenciy razvitiya nalogovyh postupleniy v konsolidirovannyy byudzhet sub'ektov RF // Vesnik ekonomicheskoy bezopasnosti. – 2021. – №2. – S. 298–304.
3. Valimuhametova E.R. Ekonometricheskoe modelirovanie nalogovyh postupleniy v byudzhet Rossii / E.R. Valimuhametova, I. B. Govako // Ekonomika i socium. – 2014. – №2 (11). – S. 872–874.
4. Grafova T. O. Prognozirovanie postupleniy federal'nyh nalogov i sborov pri pomoschi ekonometricheskogo modelirovaniya / T. O. Grafova, K. V. Kolesnikova // Inzhenernyy vestnik Dona. – 2020. – №7. – S.1–10.
5. Lavrenchuk E. N Ocenka faktorov, vliyayuschih na nalogovye postupleniya v byudzhet regionov / E. N. Lavrenchuk, D. A. Kirpischikov // Vestnik Moskovskogo universiteta. – 2021. – №5 (6). – S. 136–154.
6. Musina O. V. Analiz i prognozirovanie nalogovyh postupleniy v byudzhet, v ramkah primeneniya matematicheskih metodov v ekonomike / O. V. Musina, A. P. Eprikyan // Finansovaya ekonomika. – 2020. – №6. – S. 64–79.
7. Parhomenko, V. S. Ispol'zovanie modeley prognozirovaniya dlya opredeleniya ob'ema nalogovyh postupleniy v konsolidirovannyy byudzhet Krasnodarskogo kraya / V. S. Parhomenko, M. Yu. Ryabceva, A. A. Hramchenko, // Vestnik Akademii znaniy. – 2020. – №41 (6). – S. 357–362.
8. Sidorova, N. I. Problemy i instrumenty srednesrochnogo finansovogo planirovaniya na regional'nom i municipal'nom urovnyah // Problemy prognozirovaniya. – 2008. – №6. – S. 38–45.
9. Stagnieva, S. I. Issledovanie definiciy nalogovogo planirovaniya i prognozirovaniya // Gumanitarnye, social'no-ekonomicheskie i obschestvennye nauki. – 2014. – №6 (1). – S. 1–7.
10. Zakharova, K.A.; Muravyev, D.A.; Karagulian, E.A.; Baburina, N.A.; Degtyaryova, E.V. Assessment of Factors Affecting Tax Revenues: The Case of the Simplified Taxation System in the Russian Federation. J. Risk Financial Manag. 2024, 17, 562. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm17120562
11. Suglobov A.E., Cherkasova Yu.I., Petrenko V.A. Mezhbyudzhetnye otnosheniya v Rossiyskoy Federacii. -M.: Yuniti-Dana, 2013. -320 s.
12. Suglobov A.E., Slobodchikov D.N. Nalogovyy potencial v sisteme byudzhetnogo regulirovaniya: etapy razvitiya i perspektivy // Nalogi i nalogooblozhenie. 2009. № 8. S. 4-15.
13. Suglobov A.E., Cherkasova Yu.I. Analiz zarubezhnogo opyta byudzhetnogo vyravnivaniya // Nacional'nye interesy: prioritety i bezopasnost'. 2009. № 3. S. 68-75.
14. Orlova E.A., Lipalina S.Yu. Ocenka effektivnosti deyatel'nosti predpriyatiya s ispol'zovaniem sbalansirovannoy sistemy pokazateley // Vestnik Moskovskogo universiteta MVD Rossii. 2013. № 11. S. 221-227.