ASSESSMENT OF THE ECONOMIC EFFECTIVENESS OF GEOGRAPHICAL DIVERSIFICATION OF OIL EXPORTS: COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF EUROPEAN AND ASIAN DIRECTIONS

Sofya Fedoseeva; Evgeniya Lyalkova

doi:10.29039/2409-6024-2026-14-6-433-448

VAK Russia 5.2.3 UDC 33 CSCSTI 06.00 Russian Classification of Professions by Education 38.00.00 Russian Library and Bibliographic Classification 650 Russian Trade and Bibliographic Classification 77 BISAC BUS VAK Russia 5.2.1 VAK Russia 5.2.4 VAK Russia 5.2.5 VAK Russia 5.2.6 VAK Russia 5.2.7

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ASSESSMENT OF THE ECONOMIC EFFECTIVENESS OF GEOGRAPHICAL DIVERSIFICATION OF OIL EXPORTS: COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF EUROPEAN AND ASIAN DIRECTIONS

Published in Russian Journal of Management · Volume 14, Issue 6 · Pages 433–448 · Rubric: Marketing and logistics

DOI: https://doi.org/10.29039/2409-6024-2026-14-6-433-448

Received: 29.06.2026 Accepted: 01.07.2026 Published: 23.07.2026

Authors

Sofya Fedoseeva

Evgeniya Lyalkova

Sofya Fedoseeva

Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation Moscow

Evgeniya Lyalkova

ABSTRACT

This paper provides a quantitative assessment of the economic efficiency of geographical diversification of Russian oil exports under unprecedented sanctions pressure. Using a comparative netback analysis of two key pipeline routes — the Eastern Siberia–Pacific Ocean (ESPO) pipeline system and the Druzhba pipeline — the study examines the structure and dynamics of logistics costs, price-differential formation mechanisms, and the ultimate revenue performance of each route. The research establishes that reorientation of export flows toward Asian markets has materially increased unit transportation costs: the Transneft ESPO tariff reached RUB 3,896.51/ton as of January 1, 2026 (+5.1% vs. 2025), while total logistics costs for the Asian route amount to USD 9.3/bbl versus USD 2.9/bbl for the Druzhba route. Despite higher transportation expenses, netback analysis demonstrates superior efficiency of the Asian direction owing to the substantially narrower discount of ESPO Blend to Brent (USD 2.5/bbl in 2024) compared with Urals (USD 13.5/bbl). The widening of the Urals-Brent discount to a record USD 25.8/bbl in December 2025 — driven by new U.S. sanctions on leading Russian oil companies — negates the economic advantage of Druzhba's lower pipeline tariffs. The netback calculations confirm ESPO's strategic superiority: ESPO netback reached USD 67.5/bbl versus USD 62.9/bbl for Druzhba in 2024, generating aggregate annual revenue of USD 31.2 billion.

KEYWORDS

oil exports, geographical diversification, ESPO, Druzhba, logistics costs, price discount, netback, sanctions, Urals, ESPO Blend

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This work is licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International

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Chief editor

Aleksandr Suglobov

a_suglobov@mail.ru

Deputy Editor-in-chief

Aleksey S. Mindrin

Publishing editor

Nadezhda Troitskaya

nn2209@mail.ru +7(915)259-03-86

This work is licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International Creative Commons

GOST

Fedoseeva S. M., Lyalkova E. ASSESSMENT OF THE ECONOMIC EFFECTIVENESS OF GEOGRAPHICAL DIVERSIFICATION OF OIL EXPORTS: COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF EUROPEAN AND ASIAN DIRECTIONS // Russian Journal of Management. 2026. no. 6. pp. 433-448. DOI: https://doi.org/10.29039/2409-6024-2026-14-6-433-448. (Date of access 23.10.2026).

MLA

Sofya Fedoseeva, Lyalkova E.. "ASSESSMENT OF THE ECONOMIC EFFECTIVENESS OF GEOGRAPHICAL DIVERSIFICATION OF OIL EXPORTS: COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF EUROPEAN AND ASIAN DIRECTIONS." Russian Journal of Management 14.6 (2026): 433-448. DOI: https://doi.org/10.29039/2409-6024-2026-14-6-433-448.

APA

Fedoseeva S. M., Lyalkova E. (2026). ASSESSMENT OF THE ECONOMIC EFFECTIVENESS OF GEOGRAPHICAL DIVERSIFICATION OF OIL EXPORTS: COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF EUROPEAN AND ASIAN DIRECTIONS. Russian Journal of Management, 14(6), 433-448. https://doi.org/10.29039/2409-6024-2026-14-6-433-448

Chicago

Sofya Fedoseeva, Lyalkova E.. "ASSESSMENT OF THE ECONOMIC EFFECTIVENESS OF GEOGRAPHICAL DIVERSIFICATION OF OIL EXPORTS: COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF EUROPEAN AND ASIAN DIRECTIONS." Russian Journal of Management 14, no. 6 (2026): 433-448. https://doi.org/10.29039/2409-6024-2026-14-6-433-448.

WIKI

{{cite journal | author = Fedoseeva S. M., Lyalkova E. | title = ASSESSMENT OF THE ECONOMIC EFFECTIVENESS OF GEOGRAPHICAL DIVERSIFICATION OF OIL EXPORTS: COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF EUROPEAN AND ASIAN DIRECTIONS | journal = Russian Journal of Management | year = 2026 | volume = 14 | issue = 6 | pages = 433-448 | doi = 10.29039/2409-6024-2026-14-6-433-448 }}

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ASSESSMENT OF THE ECONOMIC EFFECTIVENESS OF GEOGRAPHICAL DIVERSIFICATION OF OIL EXPORTS: COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF EUROPEAN AND ASIAN DIRECTIONS

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