VAK Russia 5.2.3
VAK Russia 5.2.4
VAK Russia 5.2.5
VAK Russia 5.2.6
VAK Russia 5.2.7
UDC 631.15
UDC 33
The article is devoted to the analysis of the transformation of the methodology for forecasting business processes at enterprises of the agro-industrial complex in the context of technological modernization. The paper clarifies the conceptual framework and examines the key technological trends that define new objects for forecasting. A systematic review of the evolution of methodological approaches is conducted, from statistical methods and expert assessments to predictive analytics based on machine learning and digital twins. The main challenges of modern methodology are identified, including the gap between technological and managerial levels, the lack of economic justification, and the difficulties in integrating heterogeneous data. A conceptual scheme of a multi-level forecasting system integrated into the enterprise's digital platform has been proposed. Based on the apparatus of aggregated production functions and scenario modeling, an approach to assessing the expected effectiveness of technological modernization has been substantiated. Promising directions for developing methodology have been formulated, including the development of hybrid models and standards for evaluating forecasting systems in the agro-industrial complex.
agro-industrial complex, technological modernization, digital transformation, forecasting of business processes, predictive analytics, big data, digital twin, production function
1. Postanovlenie Pravitel'stva RF ot 25.08.2017 № 996 «Ob utverzhdenii Federal'noy nauchno-tehnicheskoy programmy razvitiya sel'skogo hozyaystva na 2017-2025 gody»
2. Afonin P.N. Sistemnyy analiz tamozhennyh riskov / P.N. Afonin, S.N. Gamidullaev; Rossiyskaya tamozhennaya akademiya, Sankt-Peterburgskiy im. V.B. Bobkova filial. – Sankt-Peterburg: Izd-vo Politehnicheskogo universiteta, 2006. – 202 s. – ISBN 5-7422-1138-4. – EDN PTKYVL.
3. Afonin P.N. Data Mining v upravlenii tamozhennymi riskami: monografiya / P.N. Afonin, S.N. Gamidullaev. – Sankt-Peterburg: Sankt-Peterburgskiy politehnicheskiy universitet Petra Velikogo, 2008. – 242 s. – EDN DKBYOE.
4. Barsegyan N.V. Iskusstvennyy intellekt kak klyuchevoy instrument razvitiya prirodopodobnyh tehnologiy / N.V. Barsegyan, A.I. Shinkevich // π-Economy. – 2025. – T. 18, № 5. – S. 100-112. – DOIhttps://doi.org/10.18721/JE.18507. – EDN DDBOJU.
5. Golovin A.A. Ocenka urovnya znachimosti i masshtaba sel'skohozyaystvennoy otrasli regionov strany / A.A. Golovin, D.A. Zyukin, O. I. Shinkareva // Vestnik Kurskoy gosudarstvennoy sel'skohozyaystvennoy akademii. – 2024. – № 4. – S. 174-181. – EDN DICOCJ.
6. Idrisov A. E. Rol' cifrovoy transformacii v obespechenii urovnya tehnologicheskogo razvitiya otrasley i predpriyatiy / A.E. Idrisov, A.I. Shinkevich // Vestnik Samarskogo universiteta. Ekonomika i upravlenie. – 2024. – T. 15, № 3. – S. 126-134. – DOIhttps://doi.org/10.18287/2542-0461-2024-15-3-126-134. – EDN MNEAUF.
7. Petrushina O.V. Metodicheskie aspekty prognozirovaniya rezul'tatov agrarnoy politiki gosudarstva / O.V. Petrushina, D.I. Zhilyakov // Innovacii v APK: problemy i perspektivy. – 2022. – № 4(36). – S. 122-125. – EDN LYPVRS.
8. Pisareva O.M. Ocenka effektivnosti proektov cifrovoy transformacii agropredpriyatiy: model'nyy podhod // Izvestiya vysshih uchebnyh zavedeniy. Povolzhskiy region. Obschestvennye nauki. 2025. Vyp. 1. S. 124-129.
9. Pisareva O.M. Sovremennye tendencii cifrovoy transformacii rossiyskih predpriyatiy APK polnogo cikla proizvodstva / O.M. Pisareva, M.N. Belousova, D.V. Stefanovskiy // Rossiyskiy zhurnal menedzhmenta. – 2024. – T. 22, № 3. – S. 541-572.
10. Pogonyshev V.A. Voprosy ekspluatacii sel'skohozyaystvennoy tehniki v usloviyah intellektualizacii APK / V.A. Pogonyshev, D.A. Pogonysheva, N. D. Ul'yanova // Vestnik Bryanskoy GSHA. – 2024. – № 6(106). – S. 54-59. – EDN OPSORS.
11. Pogonyshev V.A. Iskusstvennyy intellekt v cifrovom sel'skom hozyaystve / V.A. Pogonyshev, D.A. Pogonysheva // Teoreticheskie i prikladnye aspekty estestvenno-nauchnogo obrazovaniya v epohu cifrovizacii: Materialy IV Mezhdunarodnoy nauchno-prakticheskoy konferencii. V 2-h tomah, Bryansk, 24–25 aprelya 2025 goda. – Bryansk: Bryanskiy gosudarstvennyy universitet im. akad. I.G. Petrovskogo, 2025. – S. 153-156. – EDN USVWUW.
12. Popova L.V. Innovacionnoe razvitie malogo agrobiznesa Volgogradskoy oblasti: trendy i prognoznoe modelirovanie / L.V. Popova, M.S. Lata, P.A. Melihov // Vestnik Adygeyskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta. Seriya 5: Ekonomika. – 2021. – № 4(290). – S. 21-32. – DOIhttps://doi.org/10.53598/2410-3683-2021-4-290-21-32. – EDN KDXYVA.
13. Problemy logisticheskogo menedzhmenta v agropromyshlennom komplekse / L.V. Popova, T.A. Dugina, A.A. Karpova, A.G. Dosova // Vestnik Adygeyskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta. Seriya 5: Ekonomika. – 2020. – № 3(265). – S. 56-64. – EDN HBOOOD.
14. Razvitie otrasley APK na osnove formirovaniya effektivnogo mehanizma hozyaystvovaniya: Sbornik nauchnyh trudov V Mezhdunarodnoy nauchno-prakticheskoy konferencii, Kirov, 22 noyabrya 2023 goda. – Kirov: Federal'noe gosudarstvennoe byudzhetnoe obrazovatel'noe uchrezhdenie vysshego obrazovaniya Vyatskiy gosudarstvennyy agrotehnologicheskiy universitet (Kirov), 2023. – 574 s. – EDN PTFTXV.
15. Sovremennoe sostoyanie, problemy i perspektivy razvitiya APK / D.I. Zhilyakov, O.V. Petrushina, T.M. Rustamov, Ch.K. Ibekve // Aktual'nye nauchno-tehnicheskie sredstva i sel'skohozyaystvennye problemy: Materialy IX Nacional'noy nauchno-prakticheskoy konferencii s mezhdunarodnym uchastiem, Kemerovo, 29 dekabrya 2022 goda. – Kemerovo: Kuzbasskaya gosudarstvennaya sel'skohozyaystvennaya akademiya, 2022. – S. 933-936. – EDN DLVPTD.
16. Transformaciya biznes-processov otechestvennyh agropromyshlennyh predpriyatiy v usloviyah cifrovizacii ekonomiki: otchet o NIR № 23-28-00911 / ruk. E.R. Zakirova; Ural'skiy gosudarstvennyy ekonomicheskiy universitet. – 2023.
17. Upravlenie vosproizvodstvom sel'skohozyaystvennoy tehniki v APK Rossii: analiz strukturnyh disbalansov i tehnologicheskoy transformacii / L.V. Popova, A.G. Dosova, A.A. Karpova [i dr.] // Vestnik Kazanskogo gosudarstvennogo agrarnogo universiteta. – 2025. – T. 20, № 3(79). – S. 113-120. – DOIhttps://doi.org/10.12737/2073-0462-2025-20-3-113-120. – EDN ROQBFC.
18. Cifrovaya transformaciya agropromyshlennogo kompleksa: monografiya / T.I. Ashmarina, T.V. Biryukova, V.T. Vodyannikov [i dr.]. – Moskva: Obschestvo s ogranichennoy otvetstvennost'yu "Megapolis", 2022. – 160 s. – ISBN 978-5-6049097-8-2. – EDN NQIZTT.
19. Shevchenko D. D. Ispol'zovanie informacionnyh tehnologiy biznes-analitiki v strategicheskom planirovanii deyatel'nosti organizaciy APK / D. D. Shevchenko, A. A. Avdeev, O. V. Petrushina // Ekonomika Rossii v usloviyah global'nyh vyzovov: materialy III Mezhdunarodnoy nauchno-prakticheskoy konferencii, Kursk, 02 dekabrya 2024 goda. – Kursk: Kurskiy gosudarstvennyy agrarnyy universitet imeni I.I. Ivanova, 2025. – S. 248-252. – EDN ANTPTX.
20. Kleschev S.K. Mehanizm obespecheniya ekonomicheskoy bezopasnosti agroholdinga na osnove vnedreniya proektov povysheniya urovnya tehnologicheskogo suvereniteta // Ekonomika, trud, upravlenie v sel'skom hozyaystve. – 2026. – № 12 (131). – S. 4-11.
21. Kleschev S.K. Aktual'nye problemy razvitiya vnutrennego rynka vysokotehnologichnoy produkcii APK // Ekonomika sel'skogo hozyaystva Rossii. – 2025. № 10. S. 83-90.
22. Kleschev S.K. Sistematizaciya doktrinal'noy i zakonodatel'nyh baz realizacii programm tehnicheskogo pereosnascheniya APK // Ekonomika sel'skohozyaystvennyh i pererabatyvayuschih predpriyatiy. – 2025. – №12. – S. 15 -22.
23. Ekonomika predpriyatiy agropromyshlennogo kompleksa: uchebnik dlya vuzov / pod redakciey R. G. Ahmetova, Yu. V. Chutchevoy. – 2-e izd., pererab. i dop. – Moskva: Izd-vo Yurayt, 2025. – 425 s. – (Vysshee obrazovanie). – ISBN 978-5-534-15177-0. – Tekst: elektronnyy // Obrazovatel'naya platforma Yurayt [sayt]. – URL: https://urait.ru/bcode/560088 (data obrascheniya: 10.12.2025).
24. Agrotehnologicheskie trendy 2023–2030: analiticheskiy buklet / Centr razvitiya finansovyh tehnologiy PAO «Rossel'hozbank». – Elektron. dan. (1 fayl pdf : 47 s. : cv. il.). – M.: Rossel'hozbank, 2023. – Zagl. s titul. ekrana. – URL: https://rshbdigital.ru/content/analitika/agrotekhnologicheskie-trendy-2023-2030.pdf (data obrascheniya: 20.12.2025).
